Modeling the pandemic trend of 2019 Coronavirus with optimal control analysis

Bi Bi Fatima, Gul Zaman, Manar Alqudah, Thabet Abdeljawad

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations


In this work, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The proposed model portrays the multiple transmission pathways in the infection dynamics and stresses the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission of the disease. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated from the model to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19. We discuss sensitivity analysis to clarify the importance of epidemic parameters. The stability theory is used to discuss the local as well as the global properties of the proposed model. The problem is formulated as an optimal control one to minimize the number of infected people and keep the intervention cost as low as possible. Medical mask, isolation, treatment, detergent spray will be involved in the model as time dependent control variables. Finally, we present and discuss results by using numerical simulations.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103660
JournalResults in Physics
StatePublished - Jan 2021


  • (COVID-19)
  • Next generation matrix method
  • Numerical simulation
  • Optimal control analysis
  • Pandemic model
  • Stability analysis


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